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The monsoon onset over Kerala this year is likely to be on 5th June

Newdelhi:15/5/20: The National Weather Forecasting Centre of the  India Meteorological Department, has come out with the forecast of Monsoon onset over Kerala. The silent features are given below:

This year, the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala is likely to be slightly delayed as compared to normal date of onset of 1st June. The monsoon onset over Kerala this year is likely to be on 5th June with a model error of ± 4 days.

1. Background

Advance of the southwest monsoon over Indian mainland is marked by monsoon onset over Kerala and is an important indicator characterizing the transition from hot and dry season to a rainy season. As the monsoon progresses northward, relief from scorching summer temperatures experienced over the areas. Southwest monsoon sets over Kerala on 1st June with a standard deviation of about 7 days. India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been issuing operational forecasts for the date of monsoon onset over Kerala from 2005 onwards. An indigenously developed state of the art statistical model with a model error of ± 4 days is used for the purpose.

The 6 Predictors used in the models are; i) Minimum Temperatures over North-west India, ii) Premonsoonrainfall peak over south Peninsula, iii) Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) over south china Sea, (iv) Lower tropospheric zonal wind over southeast Indian Ocean, (v) upper tropospheric zonal wind over the east equatorial Indian Ocean, and (vi) Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR)over the south-west Pacific region.

IMD’s operational forecasts of the date of monsoon onset over Kerala during the past 15

years (2005-2019) were proved to be correct except in 2015. Forecast verification for the recent 5years (2015-2019) is given in the table below.:

Year                            Actual Onset Date                                       Forecast Onset Date

2015                                       5th June                                                        30th May

2016                                       8th June                                                        7th June

2017                                       30th May                                                        30th May

2018                                       29th May                                                        29th May

2019                                       8th June                                                        6th June

 

2. Status of the 2020 Southwest Monsoon and Advance over the Andaman Sea

In the Indian monsoon region, initial monsoon rains are experienced over south Andaman Sea and the monsoon winds then advance in a north-westwards across the Bay of Bengal. As per the new normal dates of monsoon onset/progress, the southwest monsoon advances over the Andaman Sea around 22nd May. At present, a well-marked Low-Pressure Area lies over southeast Bay of Bengal & neighborhood. It is very likely to concentrate into a depression over the same region during next 12 hours and further intensify into a Cyclonic Storm over central parts of south Bay of Bengal by 16th May evening. Associated with this event, conditions are likely to become favorable for advance of Southwest Monsoon into Andaman Sea, Andaman & Nicobar Islands and some parts of southeast Bay of Bengal, during next 48 hours. Past data suggest that there is no association of the date of monsoon advance over the Andaman Sea either with the date of monsoon onset over Kerala or with the seasonal monsoon rainfall over the country.

3. New Normal Dates of Onset/Progress and Withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon over India

India Meteorological Department (IMD) had released new normal dates of onset and withdrawal of southwest monsoon based on recent data in a press release dated 15th April 2020. The normal dates of onset are revised based on data during 1961-2019 and normal dates of withdrawal are revised based on data during 1971-2019. Now the detailed report (CRS Research Report. No. 3/2020) on the new normal dates of monsoon onset and withdrawal is ready and given in the below link.

http://www.imdpune.gov.in/Clim_Pred_LRF_New/Reports.html

About Editor in chief

Ashok Palit has completed his graduation from Upendranath College Soro, Balasore and post graduation from Utkal University in Odia Language and literture.. He has also carved out a niche for himself as a scribe of eminence after joining the profession in 1988. He is also an independent media production professional. He brings loads of experience to Advanced Media, Ashok Palit as a cineaste has been active in film criticism for over three decades. As a film society activist, he soared to eminence for his profound commitment to the art film appreciation and aesthetics of cinema. His mode of discourse is often erudite but always lucid and comprehensible marked by a perfect acumen so rare in the field. A film aesthete with an immense fond of critical sensibilities, he wrote about growth and development of odia cinema in New Indian Express, The Times of India, The Hindustan Times, The Asian Age and Screen. He has been working as an Editor for Cine Samaya from 2002-2004.. He had made solid contribution on cinema in many odia Dailies and weekly such as Samaj, Prajatantra, Dharatri, Samaya, Satabadi, and weekly Samaya.

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